For six quarters printers had the better half of the deal. From the December quarter 2024 their output prices, which is what they charge, climbed steadily while their input prices, which is what they pay for materials and services, sat flat or drifted down. In the June quarter 2026 that stopped.
The two series, quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Input | change | Output | change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-24 | 134.6 | n/a | 182.9 | n/a |
| Mar-25 | 134.4 | -0.15% | 185.4 | +1.37% |
| Jun-25 | 134.1 | -0.22% | 185.0 | -0.22% |
| Sep-25 | 134.0 | -0.07% | 195.1 | +5.46% |
| Dec-25 | 134.7 | +0.52% | 197.9 | +1.44% |
| Mar-26 | 137.5 | +2.08% | 201.7 | +1.92% |
| Jun-26 | 139.3 | +1.31% | 201.5 | -0.10% |
Over the full year to June 2026, output is still well ahead: +8.92 per cent against inputs at +3.88 per cent. But almost all of that output gain happened in one quarter, September 2025, when output jumped 5.46 per cent against inputs that fell. The repricing the industry did, it did a year ago.
What hit the inputs
The ABS is explicit about the cause, and it is not printing-specific. Final demand was “driven by increased energy prices, particularly for crude oil, petrol, and diesel”, which it links to “supply disruptions resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for much of the June quarter 2026”. It adds that the effects were felt across most industries, “with shipping delays adding to the cost of imported goods, while higher fuel costs increased expenses for energy-intensive manufacturing processes”.
Printing sits in the path of all three of those. Substrate is largely imported, presses and drying are energy-intensive, and finished work moves by road. On that last one the release gives a figure that should make any production manager wince: output prices for transport, postal and warehousing rose, driven by road freight transport up 15.5 per cent on increased fuel prices. Manufacturing output overall rose 2.2 per cent, driven by petroleum and coal product manufacturing.
What this does and does not prove
Our reading, labelled as such. A quarter where your input index rises 1.31 per cent and your output index falls 0.10 per cent is a quarter where the cost shock was absorbed rather than passed on. That is a margin story, and it is the first quarter in this seven-quarter run pointing that way.
It is not proof that printers are losing money. These are price indexes, not accounts. The input index covers materials and services bought by the subdivision and does not include labour, which is a large part of a printer’s cost base and moves on its own schedule. The output index is an average across a subdivision containing very different businesses, so a commercial sheetfed shop and a packaging converter are both inside that one number. And one quarter is one quarter: the September 2025 jump shows this industry can reprice sharply when it decides to, which is exactly what would show up in the next release if the June shock is passed through late.
The thing worth watching is the September 2026 quarter, due late October. If output moves up sharply again, the industry repriced with a one-quarter lag and the tailwind resumes. If it does not, the gap on that chart keeps closing.
How we sourced this. The final demand figures (+1.3 per cent for the quarter, +3.6 per cent through the year), the description of the largest quarterly increase since September 2023, the quoted explanation naming crude oil, petrol, diesel and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping-delay and energy-intensive-manufacturing wording, the manufacturing output figure of 2.2 per cent and the road freight transport figure of 15.5 per cent are from the ABS release Producer Price Indexes, Australia, June 2026, read on the day of release, 31 July 2026. Final demand figures were taken from the Key statistics block, and the series is named in the copy, because this publication also carries supplementary series that do not contribute to final demand.
The printing input and output index numbers are NOT in that release page. We downloaded the underlying data cubes and read the series out of them: output from Table 12, Output of the Manufacturing industries, and input from Table 14, Input to the Manufacturing industries. Both series are the printing subdivision, ANZSIC 16, so they are compared like for like; the output cube also carries class 1611 Printing, which moved almost identically (+9.05 per cent over the year, -0.05 per cent for the quarter). All percentage changes and the rebased chart are our arithmetic on those published index numbers.
We have not seen any printer's accounts, and no claim is made about any individual business. The input index excludes labour. The paragraphs headed “What this does and does not prove” are our interpretation, built on the sourced figures above.
Sources
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, June 2026 (released and read 31 July 2026): final demand +1.3 per cent for the quarter and +3.6 per cent through the year, the largest quarterly increase since September 2023, the Strait of Hormuz explanation and quoted wording, manufacturing output +2.2 per cent, and road freight transport +15.5 per cent.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Table 12. Output of the Manufacturing industries, division, subdivision, group and class index numbers and Table 14. Input to the Manufacturing industries, subdivision index numbers (data cubes accompanying the June 2026 release, downloaded and read 31 July 2026): every printing input and output index number in the chart and table above.
Spotted an error, or reading different numbers in your own business? Tell us and we will check it against the sources and log the outcome here.